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Das Condorcet-Jury-Theorem ist benannt nach Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas Caritat, Marquis de Condorcet. Es behandelt die Frage, unter welchen Umständen eine binäre Gruppenentscheidung höhere Qualität aufweist, also mit höherer Wahrscheinlichkeit richtig ausfällt, als die Entscheidung eines einzelnen Mitglieds.
Condorcet's jury theorem is a political science theorem about the relative probability of a given group of individuals arriving at a correct decision. The theorem was first expressed by the Marquis de Condorcet in his 1785 work Essay on the Application of Analysis to the Probability of Majority Decisions .
17. Nov. 2021 · 2.1 Condorcet’s Jury Theorem. 2.2 The problem of common causes of votes. 2.3 Partial solution: the Conditional Jury Theorem. 2.4 The fundamental tension between independence and competence. 2.5 The Competence-Sensitive Jury Theorem. 2.6 The three jury theorems compared. 3. Jury Theorems and Diversity. 3.1 Diversity versus competence heterogeneity.
The first and most famous jury theorem is Condorcet's jury theorem. It assumes that all voters have independent probabilities to vote for the correct alternative, these probabilities are larger than 1/2, and are the same for all voters.
18. Dez. 2013 · Theorem (Condorcet’s jury theorem): For each state of the world \(x \in \{-1,1\}\), the probability of a correct majority decision, \(Pr(V = x | X = x)\), is greater than each individual’s probability of a correct vote, \(Pr(V_i = x | X = x)\), and converges to 1, as the number of individuals \(n\) increases.
16. Mai 2024 · Condorcet's jury theorem states that given a group of voters (a "jury") independently choosing by majority vote between a correct outcome with probability 0<=p<=1 and an incorrect one with probability 1-p: 1. If p>1/2 (so that each voter is more likely to vote correctly that incorrectly), adding more voters increases the probability ...
20. Juli 2022 · 1. Condorcet’s Jury Theorem. Condorcet’s theorem depends on a few assumptions. First, that jurors reach their verdicts independently: each examines the evidence and makes a decision on their own. Second, that jurors are competent: more likely than not to choose the correct verdict.
