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This brings us to the “Growth in a Time of Debt” May 2010 paper. The focus of this paper is on the longer term macroeconomic implications of much higher public and external debt. With the central finding that: …median growth rates for countries with public debt over roughly 90 percent of GDP are about one percent lower than otherwise.
BB stable debt stands for the Budget Balance in structural terms needed, so that a fictive 60% debt-to-GDP ratio at the beginning is kept stable throughout an infinite (50 year) time horizon – while solely taking the impact of nominal GDP growth into concern.
Growth deteriorates markedly at external debt levels over GROWTH IN A TIME OF DEBT VOL. 100 NO. 2 17 GDP growth (bars, left axis) 5.5 16 Inflation (line, right axis) 4.5 15 14 Inflation GDP growth 3.5 2.5 13 1.5 12 0.5 Average Median −0.5 Debt/GDP below ...
8. Feb. 2010 · When external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP, annual growth declines by about two percent; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half. Third, there is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the advanced countries as a group (some countries, such as the United States, have experienced higher inflation when debt/GDP is high.) The story is ...
1. Okt. 2013 · In this paper, we exploit a new multi-country historical dataset on public (government) debt to search for a systemic relationship between high public debt levels, growth and inflation. Our main result is that whereas the link between growth and debt seems relatively weak at “normal” debt levels, median growth rates for countries with public debt over roughly 90 percent of GDP are about ...
30. Apr. 2013 · Ms. Reinhart and Mr. Rogoff have published several other papers, including a 2010 academic article, “Growth in a Time of Debt.”. It found that economic growth was notably lower when a country ...
1. Jan. 2020 · Abstract. We study the effects of large reductions in government budget deficits (labeled “fiscal consolidations”) on firms’ entry, innovative investments, productivity and per capita output growth in a model of endogenous technological change. Due to the absence of lump-sum taxes, temporary budget deficits set government debt-output ...
