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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
The probability of encountering a black swan is very low, and would be described by the outer most wings of the bell curve as a quantity. As a metaphor, black swans are rare events that are difficult to predict and influence populations and systems.
This approach permits a quantification of extreme events and allows to classify them as White, Gray, or Black Swans. Our criterion is in accordance with some previous findings but also allows us to spot new examples of Black Swans, such as Lionel Messi and the Turkish Airlines Flight 981 disaster.
COMBINING STATISTICS AND EVENTS. Over the course of human history there have always been so-called Black Swan events. These historic events are de-ned as singular occurrences with high impact that were entirely unexpected at their time, but in retrospect appear to be the logical consequence considering the given precon-ditions.
7. März 2017 · Here, we estimate the prevalence and direction of black-swan events (heavy-tailed process noise) in 609 animal populations after accounting for population dynamics (productivity, density dependence, and typical stochasticity). We find strong evidence for black-swan events in ∼ 4% of populations.
23. Juli 2020 · Challenging the quintessentially unpredictable nature of black swan events, bioengineers at Stanford University are suggesting a method for forecasting these supposedly unforeseeable fluctuations.
27. Juli 2022 · Abstract. Many natural and socioeconomic systems are characterized by power-law distributions that make the occurrence of extreme events not negligible. Such events are sometimes referred to as Black Swans, but a quantitative definition of a Black Swan is still lacking.
